The Brandmauer Holds (For Now)
The Brandmauer, the metaphorical “wall” erected against the far right by traditionally governing parties, trembles but does not collapse—at least for now.
In the 21st election for the Bundestag, Germany’s parliament based in Berlin, the center-right CDU-CSU Union led by Chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz turned out as the leading political force in Germany with 28.5% of the vote. Close behind is Alternative for Germany (AfD), led by Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla, which achieved 20.8%, especially gaining support particularly in the former East Germany.
Who will be the new chancellor? This all depends on the future government coalition. If the centrist CDU-CSU and the far-right AfD were to form an alliance, they would secure an absolute majority in the Bundestag. However, this is an unlikely scenario, which Merz has already ruled out during his campaign, despite his recent alignment with AfD on immigration policies, criticized by former CDU Chancellor Angela Merkel.
A more likely scenario is a coalition of moderates, but the exact nature of that coalition remains uncertain. There are currently two potential alternatives on the table: a two-party alliance between CDU and SPD or a three-party coalition involving the Greens.
In both cases, the widespread concern is that AfD, by remaining in opposition, could capitalize on the discontent that often turns against governing parties. “The problem is not this election, but the next one,” warn voters in District 281 of Freiburg, a progressive stronghold attentive to social and environmental issues. “A bubble,” say Helen and Jakob, which, however, does not represent all of Germany. “I don’t think extremists can come to power this time, but in four or eight years, the risk will be real,” agrees a group of young people.
SPD Drops, But Remains Central
Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD), led by outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, has dropped from 25.7% to 16.4%, losing roughly a third of its support. Contributing factors include the consequences of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, such as rising energy bills, and the economic crisis the country is facing.
Despite this significant setback, no moderate government can form without SPD support. A CDU-CSU and SPD alliance would achieve an absolute majority with 328 seats out of 630 in the Bundestag, but the two parties would need to overcome the divisions that have opposed them in the months leading up to the election and manage to govern together.
The Role of the Greens
There remains uncertainty about the role the Greens (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen), led by the current Minister of Economy and Climate Robert Habeck, will play. Despite a dip from 14.8% in the previous election, the environmentalist party of Chancellor candidate Robert Habeck has maintained rather solid support, securing 11.6% of the vote.
With a decline of around three percentage points, the Greens’ loss is the least significant among the members of the former “traffic light” coalition (SPD, Greens, FDP) led by Scholz. This coalition collapsed after Scholz fired Finance Minister Lindner from the Liberals (FDP), which made them withdrew all their ministers from the government and parliamentary support. This led to elections around seven months earlier than expected.
The decision facing the Greens is whether to remain in government or move to the opposition. This is not just a decision for the German Greens, but more broadly for the future of ecological and social movements in Germany and Europe.
“We are the party that has lost the least support among those in government, but we cannot be satisfied with the overall outcome of the elections,” say German Green activists and supporters, gathered at the Waldsee-Restaurant in Freiburg to follow the election results live. In the city’s electoral district, Chantal Kopf was re-elected and celebrated her success on stage.
Regarding a possible alliance with the CDU of Friedrich Merz, the likely future chancellor, opinions among the Greens of Freiburg vary. The majority wants the party to support a coalition with the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats to remain in government and attempt to implement their program. A minority, however, would prefer the party stay out, disillusioned about the possibility of truly influencing the political agenda from within. “We must be open to dialogue, but without compromising our principles,” mediates Green activist Helene Altgelt. However, the decision will not only depend on the Greens’ will but also on the CDU and SPD’s willingness to coalition with them.
Die Linke Surprises, FDP and Wagenknecht Disappoint
The surprise of the Berlin Parliament election is the result for Die Linke (The Left), which, despite losing support in former East Germany to AfD, managed to climb in the polls, reaching an impressive 8.8%—almost doubling the 4.9% they received in 2021.
On the other hand, both Sahra Wagenknecht‘s party, Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), and the Free Democratic Party (Freie Demokratische Partei, FDP) led by Christian Lindner failed to send any representatives to the Berlin legislature.
The Road to the New Government
The first plenary session of the newly elected Bundestag is scheduled at the latest for March 25, where the President and Vice-Presidents of the assembly will be elected. In the meantime, the leaders of the respective parties will begin initial talks to decide who will form the government. When negotiations intensify, the main actors working on a coalition agreement will be Merz for the Union, Esken and Klingbeil for SPD and Brantner and Banaszak for the Greens.
The draft of the government contract will then be reviewed by the parties: the CDU is to discuss it in its council, the Greens will hold a referendum among their members, and SPD may do the same. Given that moderate coalitions without SPD are numerically possible, the result of their potential referendum will be crucial. If the outcome is negative, a return to the polls cannot be ruled out.
Should SPD, CDU, and the Greens reach an agreement, the coalition will proceed with the proposal of a candidate for chancellor. Merz, bolstered by his party’s electoral success, currently appears to be the favorite, but it is not mandatory that he be the designated candidate.
The candidate will then need to secure an absolute majority in Parliament. If this fails, there will be two weeks to propose another candidate, who will also need to obtain an absolute majority. If this second attempt fails as well, a third candidate will need only a relative majority.
Once a majority is achieved, the candidate will become chancellor upon appointment by the President of the Federal Republic of Germany, Frank-Walter Steinmeier.
